Predicting periods of excess solar power

My solar PV has been in and working now for several months. We’ve tried to adjust our usage patterns to take advantage of when there will be excess solar after our battery and hot water tank are filled.

This has been something I’ve been thinking about for a while and I have a few ideas.

I have no shortage of data, so I’ll need to first figure out the prediction process. This can probably be done with a simple machine learning tool and the data from my smart meter combined with the solar forecast. If I have can compare these values across multiple days, I think a system could predict based on a time period we’d experience our first export.

The other side is surfacing that data. That’s the bit I know how to do. Perhaps a simple eInk display beside the washing machine that reads something like “Put me on around 3:30pm” or similar.

I’m gonna dig into this as and when I can and I’ll document my findings here.